Superbowl Diction

A good "friend" told me today that it was too early to start talking sh*t about the Superbowl, and that it's way too early for upset predictions.  Another "friend" told me he couldn't wait to watch this game with me so that he could see the look on my face when the Giants were pummeled by his mighty Patriots.    A co-worker told me I was crazy for not conceding the game to the Pats this morning, January 22, 2008.

Firstly, it's not too early.  It's timely.  We only have two weeks to be force-fed contrived story lines, and to pawn off the little nuggets of information contained therein as our own insights.  In two weeks, everything we say could be potentially nullified by what actually transpires on the field. I'm not crazy.  The 14 point spread is, but I'm not.  It should also be noted that a crude upset prediction was sent only as a joke to elicit an entertaining response that would break up the work day monotony.  The dismissive nature of that response was more revealing of a flawed demeanor than was my "You guys are goin doooooown" email.  To the same point, over the course of the past two days of my life in New England, I've grown evermore confused by the extent of Patriot Nation's (to borrow a stupid phrase from their stupid local baseball team) collective swagger.  I guess Bill only made enough humble pie for his players.  (What is it with this town and its affinity for cliches?)  

As such, I've taken it upon myself to set forth what I hope to be a reasonable case for a potential Giants victory:  

The G-men got very lucky Sunday. They made it to the NFC championship on the heals of mistake-free football. It wasn't so much that they were beating up on the opposition as they weren't being penalized and weren't turning the ball over.  This was not the case during Sunday's nail-biter.  It should only build confidence then, that they were able to find a new way to win in a frigid and hostile environment, having made plenty of mistakes, and against their second consecutive "class of the conference" opponent.  This past Sunday, the Giants didn't beat the Packers in spite of Eli, they beat the Packers mostly because of him.  Having been unsuccessful in avoiding mistakes as a team, the Giants won by making plays.  

Now don't get me wrong: The Pats are the better team on paper. For 99% of the season I was resolute that they were the better team on the field as well. They're an offensive juggernaut AND they have the best X's and O's coach possibly in the game's history. This helps to explain how they've managed to go undefeated.  However....

I was at Giants' Stadium for the first meeting December 29. Without an Eli interception and two critical penalties the Pats lose that game. For a substantial part of it they were out-played. And while home field is often a prudent excuse, this Giants team is actually on a record winning streak away from the friendly confines of the Meadowlands.  Mistake-free, as they performed AT Tampa and AT Dallas, the potential for the upset in Arizona is there.  Even if they make mistakes - hopefully not at the torrent pace they did AT Green Bay - it's possible Eli could out-duel an ailing Tom Brady - who BTW was spotted at a vacation hotspot/Manhattan (a la Tony Romo) sporting a boot that would seemingly indicate an injury of some sort.  To be sure, Brady did not play well enough Sunday to beat the Giants.  At least not the Giants that have showed up so far this playoff season.  He did apparently play well enough to beat a Charger team coached by Norv Turner, quarterbacked by a guy who could barely walk,  and that was without the most dynamic player in football.  So yeah, if this is something which evokes confidence, I guess I am completely out of line.    

More from a previously mentioned "friend": 

"The Patriots are a well oiled machine that finds ways to win, even when Brady throws 3 ints with a broken foot and Randy Moss is beating up women. Talent and experience has carried the Patriots through 18 straight wins, not momentum."  

This is only partly accurate.  The Pats did find a way to win despite Brady's atrocious performance, apparent foot injury, and Randy Moss' bedroom exploits.  At this point in the season, however, the Pats aren't a well-oiled machine. You could argue their best football is behind them.  If they win the Superbowl, which would be a historic accomplishment, it will have to be without the style points and fuck-you-touchdowns that characterized their early season romp through the first 2/3 of their schedule.  I am not sure you can say with any certainty that their campaign for perfection has not been aided by momentum. Especially in some of these late season near misses.   I would argue the Patriots had mustered up considerable momentum that has helped them overcome intermittent lackluster performances since week 12.

New England 31, Philadelphia 28 

New England 27, Baltimore 24 

New England 34, Pittsburgh 13 

New England 20, NY Jets 10 

New England 28, Miami 7 

New England 38, NY Giants 35

New England 21, Jacksonville

New England 21, San Diego 12

Ultimately, it would be fair for the Patriots to be a 10 point favorite.  We musn't forget, however, that there's a reason they actually play these games.  

More biased analysis likely coming throughout the next two weeks.  While you wait, might as well take another look at Cree in his lucky Giants sweater.